I don't understand. Why does the p-value have anything to do with the magnitude of the effect?

]]>answer = (pA + pD)*(1/3) + pB*(1/3) + pC*(1/3) = 1/3 since the probabilities must sum to one, which I believe would be Ike’s answer. Holds regardless of probabilities to answer Thomas question.

Note that one could relax the assumption of equal priors to get

answer = (pA + pD)*(Prior(25)) + pB*(Prior(50)) + pC*(1- Prior(25) – Prior(50))

This formula is a legitimate answer, essentially saying the answer depends in an exact way on information not given in the problem.

]]>I have some quantitative training in addition to my medical background, so I suspect I can handle the theory. But my coding’s weak (but present).

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